SPX6900 (SPX) News

BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now on track to open below 7,500 for the first time since July 31st as markets price-in a Democrat victory in both the House and Senate. Nasdaq 100 futures are now down more than -2% tonight.

ELECTION DAY FUTURES UPDATE: 1. S&P 500: -0.9% 2. Dow Jones: -0.5% 3. Nasdaq 100: -1.9% 4. Crude Oil: -1.0% 5. Gold: +0.7% The Nasdaq 100 is now trading at its lowest level since July 26th. Markets are pricing-in a near-certain Democrat "sweep."

BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures extend losses to nearly -1.5% on the day as the odds of a Democrat "sweep" rise to 95%. The S&P 500 has now erased -$500 billion in market cap over the last 2 hours.

It's officially election day. History says stocks are heading higher. In fact, the S&P 500 has closed GREEN in the year following every US Midterm election since 1980. As we noted in our analysis yesterday, we believe recent weakness in markets is largely a function of the uncertainty around Midterm elections. However, when this uncertainty dissipates, markets react positively. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a +14% gain in the 12 months following US Midterm elections. Furthermore, even after divided-government outcomes, the index has averaged a +15% one-year gain, compared to +12% under single-party control. Of course, the near-term picture will come with volatility and change. But, if history is any guide, it's a great time to be bullish. Turn on our post notifications at for real-time analysis as this develops.

US semiconductor stocks have rarely been this volatile: Over the last 5 mins S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index has recorded 11 trading sessions in which at least 50% of its components fell -5% or more, the 4th-highest reading on record. By comparison, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, the index recorded 16 such sessions. The only other periods with more volatility were 2000 and 2002, following the Dot-Com Bubble burst. Furthermore, the S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index fell more than -5% on 12 trading days over the last 5 months. The index is now down -32% from its June peak, trading at its lowest level since April. Semiconductor stocks are experiencing historic volatility.

Markets are heading into their strongest seasonal period of the year: Since 1980, the S&P 500 has rallied +2.1% on average in November, making it the strongest month of the year. Over this period, positive returns occurred 74% of the time, the best hit rate of any month. Furthermore, the S&P 500 has gained +1.6% on average in November since 1964, with positive returns occurring 69% of the time. The highest November return during this period was +10.8%, recorded in 2020. During midterm years, November has averaged +2.7% since 1950, with a 78.9% win rate. History points to a strong month ahead.

BREAKING: US stocks surge as investors buy the dip in technology stocks and US-Iran peace deal hopes resurface: 1. S&P 500: +1.0% 2. Nasdaq 100: +1.3% 3. Dow Jones: +1.1% 4. WTI Crude: -6.5% 5. Brent: -7.0% 6. Gold: +2.0% US stocks have added over +$700 billion in market cap today.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index outperformed the S&P 500 by +5.7 percentage points in October, its largest monthly outperformance since April 2009. This also marked its 2nd-largest monthly outperformance since the 1990s. The Equal-Weight Index surged +4.8% in October, while the S&P 500 fell -0.9%. Year-to-date, the Equal-Weight Index has gained +13.9%, exceeding the S&P 500's +10.7% return as technology stocks lag the broader market. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ex-AI Index has jumped +14.2% year-to-date, reaching a new all-time high on Friday. Market leadership is rapidly shifting.

RT : The "stealth" bear market is in full-swing. While the Nasdaq 100 erased -$4 trillion in 25 days, the "S&P 500 Excluding AI" hit a RECORD high on Friday. AI stocks fell over -13% in October while the S&P 500 Excluding AI gained+8%. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

Key Events This Week: 1. October ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Monday 2. Apple, $AAPL, and Palantir, $PLTR, Report Earnings - Monday 3. US Midterm Elections - Tuesday 4. September JOLTS Job Openings data - Tuesday 5. AMD, $AMD, and SMCI, $SMCI, Report Earnings - Tuesday 6. October ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - Wednesday 7. October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday 8. October Jobs Report - Friday 9. November MI Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment data - Friday 10. ~20% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings This Week 11. Total of 5 Fed Speaker Events This Week Buckle up for a huge week ahead.

RT : The "stealth" bear market is in full-swing. While the Nasdaq 100 erased -$4 trillion in 25 days, the "S&P 500 Excluding AI" hit a RECORD high on Friday. AI stocks fell over -13% in October while the S&P 500 Excluding AI gained+8%. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

RT : The "stealth" bear market is in full-swing. While the Nasdaq 100 erased -$4 trillion in 25 days, the "S&P 500 Excluding AI" hit a RECORD high on Friday. AI stocks fell over -13% in October while the S&P 500 Excluding AI gained+8%. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

RT : The "stealth" bear market is in full-swing. While the Nasdaq 100 erased -$4 trillion in 25 days, the "S&P 500 Excluding AI" hit a RECORD high on Friday. AI stocks fell over -13% in October while the S&P 500 Excluding AI gained+8%. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

Lastly, as part of our "stealth" bear market thesis, we noted broader uncertainty baked into markets. Without the global energy crisis, the S&P 500 would be above 8,500. We expect an eventful November ahead. Follow us for real time analysis as this develops.

Additionally, the MAJORITY of Information Technology and communication services stocks are down -30% or more. Meanwhile, just 28% of Financials, 29% of Energy, and 30% of Health Care stocks are down this much. Just 40% of the S&P 500, including tech, is down -30% or more.

Take a look at our analysis below. Currently ~58% of the S&P 500 is down -20% or more from their highs. This is 1 percentage point LESS than our October 15th report, meaning breadth has BROADENED. Meanwhile, 75% of tech stocks are in bear market territory. And, it gets worse.

In reality? The S&P 500 is now trading just 3.5% away from its record high. The S&P 500 Excluding AI hit a fresh record high on Friday, the widest divergence on record. This is our "stealth" bear market in full-swing. Most investors were blindsided by the sudden shift.

Over the last 5 days, as shown below, the MAJORITY of S&P 500's components were green. Selling pressure is almost entire concentrated in technology stocks. Most investors are highly exposed to tech, which is why sentiment is far more bearish than what the index portrays.

Naturally, one would expect the S&P 500 to be trading sharply lower. AI-related stocks now account for ~48% of the S&P 500, with Nvidia alone reflecting 7.5%. Since 2022, every time tech has turned lower, the broader market followed. The exact opposite is happening now.

On October 15th, we published a research report declaring a "stealth" bear market. We identified a historic paradox: in our view the S&P 500 is in a bear market, within a bull market. Last week, our thesis was confirmed as the Nasdaq 100 briefly entered correction territory.

The "stealth" bear market is in full-swing. While the Nasdaq 100 erased -$4 trillion in 25 days, the "S&P 500 Excluding AI" hit a RECORD high on Friday. AI stocks fell over -13% in October while the S&P 500 Excluding AI gained+8%. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

BREAKING: S&P Global revises its outlook on Meta, $META, to "negative," citing "significant uncertainty" surrounding CapEx and free operating cash flow (FOCF). "The negative outlook reflects our expectation that the company's leverage could exceed 1.0x and FOCF could remain negative for longer than expected," S&P said. S&P is now raising concerns about AI CapEx.

BREAKING: Short interest in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, is up to ~82 million shares, its highest since March 2023. Over the last several weeks, this figure has surged +18 million shares, or +28%. Year-to-date, short interest in $QQQ has nearly doubled. Meanwhile, short interest in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has declined -30 million shares since March, to ~92 million shares, near its lowest in at least 5 years. By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, short interest peaked at ~90 million shares for $QQQ and ~180 million shares for $SPY. Short interest in tech is very high right now.

On days like today, it's important to zoom out. No, the AI Revolution is not "over," and the market is not "going to zero." In fact, the Nasdaq 100 is up +11% YTD and nearly +70% since its April 2025 low. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is currently set to post a blended earnings +30.2% growth rate for Q3 2026. This puts us on track for the third-straight quarter of earnings growth above 25%. And, even after the biggest hack in crypto history, Bitcoin is down less than -5% this week. Disruptive technologies like AI will inevitably bring heightened volatility, polarized positioning, and extreme swings in market sentiment. However, do not let short-term volatility overshadow the broader picture. We are in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in history. Technical corrections are healthy, necessary, and an inevitable part of every bull market. Do not lose sight of the bigger picture.

The Nasdaq 100 is up +12% YTD, S&P 500 +10%. In other words, your short position went from -90% to -80% today. Congratulations.

This chart says it all. Take a look at the S&P 500's heat map over the last 30 days. Sentiment is currently as if we are in a major bear market, with tech stocks down -$5 trillion in 3 weeks. Meanwhile, the MAJORITY of the S&P 500 is green over the last month, and the index is 3% away from a record high. Our "stealth" bear market is underway.

RT : Our October 15th analysis is aging perfectly. The Magnificent 7 has lost -$4 trillion, 60%+ of S&P 500 components are in bear market territory, and tech is selling off on earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is ~2.5% away from a record high. The "stealth" bear market continues.

There it is. Over 60% of the S&P 500's components are now in bear market territory, down -20% or more from their record highs. Four of the Magnificent 7 stocks are now in bear market territory, with these seven names erasing a combined -$4 trillion in market cap since their highs. We are in a "stealth" bear market. And, we believe it's a huge opportunity as we outlined below on October 15th.

Communication Services stocks are under severe pressure: The Communication Services ETF, $XLC, underperformed the S&P 500 by -6.3 percentage points over 5 trading days ending October 27th, its largest 5-day underperformance since November 2022. This also marks its 3rd-biggest 5-day relative decline in 19 years. This comes as $XLC has fallen in 8 of the last 9 sessions, losing a total of -8.3%, and is trading at its lowest level since June 2025. Communication services stocks are now heading for their 3rd consecutive weekly decline. As a result, $XLC is down -11.6% year-to-date, putting it on track for its first annual drop since 2022. The Communication Services sector has become extremely oversold.

US oil refiner stocks are skyrocketing: The S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Index is up +136% YTD, set for its best annual performance on record. This is more than double the +65% gain seen during the 2022 energy crisis. By comparison, the next best years for the sector since 1996 were +80% in 2012 and +77% in 2005 Marathon Petroleum, $MPC, Valero Energy, $VLO, and Phillips 66, $PSX, are leading YTD gains, at +174%, +142%, and +117%, respectively. Furthermore, the oil refiners ETF, $CRAK, is up +65% over the same period, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since its launch in August 2015. US oil refiners are experiencing a historic year.