ARPA (ARPA) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030

ARPA (ARPA) price prediction ranges from a 2026 baseline of $0.00849 (-7.7%) up to bullish scenarios of $0.0146 (+58%), with 2030 targets spanning $0.000247 to $0.0205. Chance ARPA finishes 2026 above today's $0.0092: 43% — from 599 days of realized volatility.

Automated probability bands from this coin’s own price history — scenarios, not a buy or sell call.

The median path drifts below today's price because volatility compounds against the middle outcome — at 67% annualized vol, the typical result is a loss even when the average is flat. That gap is the risk, drawn to scale.

Every average above equals today's price because the model assumes no drift — we do not bet on a direction, so the spread is the whole forecast.

The median is the middle outcome, not a target — half the simulated paths finish below it. The 80% range is where four out of five paths land; one in five finishes outside it, and roughly one in ten below the low end.

Read these instead of the headline number. "62% chance of being lower in 3 months" is a claim you can hold us to; "our target is $0.045" is not.

Grey figures are the market cap each scenario implies at today's circulating supply, and where that would rank among the 777 coins we track. A price target that implies an impossible market cap is not a target — this column is here so you can check ours.

Multi-year medians fall away from today's price the more volatile a coin is. That is arithmetic, not a bearish call: at 67% annualized volatility, most individual paths lose ground even though the average across all of them is flat. The bull column is where the upside actually lives, and the probability column tells you how much of it there is.

We have scored this model out to 180 days. Everything past that — most of this table — is the same engine extrapolated well beyond the range anyone has checked it against, ours included. Treat the multi-year rows as the shape of the risk, not as a number to plan around.

Every band is logged when published and scored when it matures. These are the results — including the ones that make us look bad.

Resolved published forecasts, 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-15

Live and backfill are kept separate on purpose and never averaged together.

The probability model above stops at 2030, because ARPA's own price history cannot support a wider band than that. For the years past it, the honest answer is arithmetic rather than a forecast: if ARPA compounded at a steady rate from spot — no crashes, no pumps, no mean reversion — it would land here.

Every number on this page comes from one distribution, computed by predict-core.js. There is no separate "target price" model and no hand-set price objective.

Shape — a circular block bootstrap draws 1,500 samples from ARPA's own 599 daily returns, so the fat tails and skew are this coin's, not a normal curve's. The returns are de-meaned first: we use the shape of its history and deliberately refuse to extrapolate its recent drift, which is how momentum models talk themselves into pumps.

Scale — volatility is not held constant. Today's EWMA vol (56% annualized, λ=0.94) reverts toward this coin's own realized vol (94%) with a 35-day half-life, which in turn decays toward a mature-asset anchor of 67% over a 730-day half-life. Integrating that gives the width at any horizon — replacing the arbitrary "dampening" multipliers this page used to apply.

Drift — we claim an expected return of zero. That is not the same as a flat median: because volatility compounds against the middle outcome, the median of a 67%-vol asset falls even when its mean is flat. The old version of this page hid that, publishing a flat median while implicitly claiming a large positive expected return. The gap between the median and the mean on this page is exactly the volatility drag, and it is the honest cost of holding something this volatile.

Accountability — every band is written to a log the day it is published and scored against the actual price when it matures. The scorecard above is generated from that log and is not curated. If our 80% bands stop containing 80% of outcomes, that section will say so before we do.

Every input above is measured from ARPA's own daily candles, so it is worth reading next to its technical analysis and the price history the model was fitted on.

Engine v1 · daily vol now 2.95% · long-run 4.95% · 599 bars · expected return zero · fan precomputed by the scanner pass