32.9% chance it lands above last month's 0.2% — already priced; the move comes from the surprise against the 0.3% expectation. Odds of landing softer / in line / hotter than the 0.3% expectation. Implied by 8 Kalshi contracts (10,508 vol); estimator spread 0
PPI and PCE measure inflation upstream of the shopper — at the wholesale (producer) and personal-consumption level. They often lead CPI by a month and feed directly into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, so a surprise here reshapes rate expectations before CPI even prints. Lower-volatility than CPI, but they still move the dollar and, with it, crypto risk appetite.
Watch whether producer prices confirm or contradict the latest CPI trend — a divergence is what surprises the market. Core PCE, released later in the month, is the gauge the Fed actually targets.
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